Model selection

Model selection

Choose the right model family based on latency, cost, context length, and task requirements.

If you are not sure where to start

Start with chronos-bolt-base for most workloads. It offers a strong balance of accuracy, speed (130ms), and cost ($0.07/1M tokens) with probabilistic output support. From there, move to timesfm-2.0-500m if you need longer context, moirai-1.1-R models for multivariate, or ttm-r2 if you need to minimize cost.

Decision factors

Key dimensions to consider when selecting a model.

FactorLowMidHigh
Latency requirement< 150ms150-400ms> 400ms
Budget per 1M tokens< $0.10$0.10-0.25> $0.25
Context needed< 5K tokens5K-12K> 12K
Task complexityPoint forecastProbabilisticMulti-task

Recommendations by scenario

Lowest latency

You need sub-150ms responses for real-time dashboards, alerting, or streaming applications.

Recommended

chronos-bolt-mini (60ms)chronos-bolt-small (88ms)ttm-r2 (95ms)

These models use direct prediction or lightweight architectures that minimize inference time.

Lowest cost

You are processing millions of series in batch and need to minimize per-request cost.

Recommended

chronos-bolt-mini ($0.02)ttm-r2 ($0.03)chronos-bolt-small ($0.04)

Smaller parameter counts mean lower GPU utilization per request. Combined with high rate limits, these are ideal for batch workloads.

Best forecast quality

Accuracy is the primary concern and you can tolerate higher latency and cost.

Recommended

moirai-1.1-R-largetimesfm-2.0-500mtimer-base-84m

Larger models with longer context windows capture more complex patterns. Moirai 1.1-R Large excels at multivariate, TimesFM 2.0 at long context, and Timer provides a strong zero-shot univariate baseline.

Multivariate series

You have multiple correlated variables that should be modeled jointly.

Recommended

moirai-1.1-R-smallmoirai-1.1-R-basemoirai-1.1-R-large

Moirai's Any-Variate Attention captures cross-variate dependencies natively. Choose the size that fits your latency and cost budget.

Limited history

You have fewer than 50 historical observations (new products, new sensors).

Recommended

chronos-bolt-basemoirai-1.1-R-smalltimesfm-2.0-500m

These models have strong zero-shot transfer from pre-training and produce reasonable forecasts even with minimal context.

Full model comparison

All hosted models sorted by latency. Click any model name to see full details.

ModelParamsLatencyInput costContextBest for
chronos-bolt-mini9M60ms$0.024KUltra-low latency and edge deployment
chronos-bolt-small48M88ms$0.046KReal-time and batch applications at lowest cost
ttm-r2~1M95ms$0.034KUltra-low-cost batch forecasting and edge deployment
chronos-bolt-base205M130ms$0.078KFast inference with strong accuracy
moirai-1.1-R-small14M210ms$0.098KLow-cost multivariate forecasting
timer-base-84m84M260ms$0.152.9KStrong zero-shot point forecasting from THUML
moirai-1.1-R-base91M330ms$0.1712KBalanced multivariate quality and cost
timesfm-2.0-500m500M480ms$0.3816KMaximum forecast quality for long-horizon tasks
moirai-1.1-R-large311M520ms$0.2916KMaximum multivariate forecast quality

Next steps

Browse modelsSee all models with live status, pricing, and detailed specifications.

QuickstartMake your first API call and see forecasts in under 5 minutes.

PlaygroundTest models interactively with your own data before committing to an integration.